PTC1 on Saturday Morning (4 June)

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is still an unrealized potential, and shows no signs of organization before the associated mess of rain squalls moves past Florida. Here is what it looks like on InfraRed satellite (the sun isn’t up yet as I write this):

Click any image to embiggen.

There are actually several “centers” depending on how you define that, including the small convection-free swirl of clouds you can see in the center of the image. NHC thinks this mess will consolidate into a single center once it moves past Florida and The Bahamas, but they are off the hook for a real tropical storm. That doesn’t mean that some rain squalls with tropical storm force winds won’t pass by this morning, but more like the typical summer downpours and thunderstorms than a real tropical storm.

For being such a disorganized mess the track models and forecasts are remarkably consistent, taking it out parallel to the US Southeast coast towards Bermuda. There is still a chance that this will develop briefly in to Tropical Storm Alex before it gets there, but it will likely be short lived before conditions deteriorate and it becomes extratropical.

Raw spaghetti. Not for human consumption until cooked.

Hurricane #Agatha making landfall in #Mexico today

The slowly moving Hurricane Agatha is making landfall on the west coast of Mexico this evening. Tropical storm force winds and heavy rain are already being felt on the Mexican coast, and conditions will worsen throughout the day. Here’s the latest impact forecast map using my TAOS/TC model, based on the official forecast:

Click to enlarge.

Agatha is a strong Category Two hurricane at 110mph (95 kt) winds. The forecast keeps it at that intensity, although it might barely make Cat 3 status before landfall. Either way that shouldn’t change the impact estimates much. Agatha is a small storm, but there are still around 1.5 million people in the potential damage swath. The economic impact estimate has decreased a little with the track and intensity forecast changes, now at about $200 Million USD.

It is not likely Agatha will survive long after landfall, and while some of the track models do take the remnants into the Gulf on the current track the dynamics of it being a recognizable storm just aren’t there. NHC is showing an area of potential development around the Yucatan Peninsula in a couple of days (the yellow blob on the five day outlook (link)). Some of the remnant moisture of Agatha might contribute to the development of that potential system. The GFS model has been persistent in forecasting a storm to spin up off the coast of Belize in three or four days, then track across Cuba and the Bahamas as it moves northeast, ending up between Bermuda and North Carolina in about 10 days. While of interest to modelers and long range forecasters, it’s WAY too early to speculate or get excited about it.

Isaias evening update (Thu 30 July)

It seems that the center of Isaias is reforming just off the north shore of the Dominican Republic. What that means in short is that it seems to have survived more intact than had it gone a bit further west, and the likely track has shifted a bit. NHC has also changed their forecast philosophy a little (Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Isaias (en Español: Mensajes Claves)) and now forecast the storm to become a minimal hurricane – but not much more than that since conditions aren’t terribly favorable. So what does this mean? Not all that much. It makes the scenario where the storm come up mid-Florida much less likely, so the worst of the storm will stay offshore from them the Bahamas will take the brunt, but Isaias is fast moving and this is no Dorian. Nevertheless, The Bahamas should prepare for hurricane conditions for late tomorrow through Sunday. The coast of Florida is now under a tropical storm watch, and the Fort Lauderdale to Cape Canaveral area may see some stormy weather if the storm slows and turns in 48-72 hours just offshore as forecast. For GA/SC, maybe breezy, some gusty rain right on the coast, depending on the timing of the onshore winds and tides low lying areas that get water with above normal tides might see a little flooding, but this track is far enough offshore to not be much risk – IF the storm goes as planned. Consider this an opportunity to think through your hurricane plans for a real storm threat. Hatteras is more likely to get side-swiped, but they are used to this sort of thing. The Canadian Maritines might get a strong blow in aboot six days.