Enki Research Blog
Here’s the morning surface analysis from TAFB (the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch, within the National Hurricane Center) over the GOES IR satellite image … The two features of interest are “Tropical” storm Odette, and the disturbance approaching the Leeward Islands(lower right, above the word “Surface” in the label). I put Odette’s title in quotes … Continue reading →
Nothing has really changed that much, the remnants of Nicholas continue to be a flash flood risk along the TX/LA coast. There are three disturbances on the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook. Here is this morning’s TAFB analysis map on the GOES East Infrared view (I added the red labels for the three disturbances discussed in … Continue reading →
To reinforce what was said (repeatedly) over time about models and people who get excited about long range forecasts, take a look at this comparison of the GFS 850mb winds from runs at 00z yesterday and today, for Friday the 24th at 8pm: So the various blogs and weather channels that spend a lot of … Continue reading →
TLDR: Nicholas continues to dump on the Gulf Coast, Shanghai/Ningbo starting to reopen, and why you shouldn’t get excited about models episode eleventy-billion or something. Nicholas is still being tracked as tropical depression. By far the biggest impact of this thing has been rain and ongoing flooding along the Gulf Coast. Here’s the forecast rain … Continue reading →
NHC upgraded Nicholas to a hurricane just before landfall, based on an isolated hurricane wind report. In reality that’s just a technicality, the impacts were that of a strong tropical storm, and the major threat continues to be inland rain and flooding. In the Pacific, Typhoon (now tropical storm) Chanthu missed a landfall at Shanghai, … Continue reading →
Nicholas should make landfall tonight on the Texas coast near Matagorda as a strong tropical storm. Here are NHC’s latest Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Nicholas (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Most of the impacts will be to the right of the storm, over the Houston area, and given the fact the storm will parallel the coast … Continue reading →
The disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has gotten organized enough for NHC to start advisories and tracking as Tropical Storm Nicholas. Right now it looks like the Texas coast is in the damage swath and tropical storm warnings are in NHC’s Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Nicholas (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Here’s my TAOS/TC damage … Continue reading →
The post-9/11 world is such a huge chunk of my working life, and 20 years is a milestone and worth some reflections, so I guess I should write something about it. I wasn’t in the country on that day – I was returning home from a mission in the Caribbean, and was waiting in Puerto … Continue reading →
The National Hurricane Center started advisories on Tropical Storm Mindy last night. It’s a very minimal storm, mostly a rain event, and a very asymmetric one at that with the heavy rain displaced to the northwest of the storm. Here’s the radar composite at 5:18am this morning … For those in Coastal Georgia and South … Continue reading →
THREAT CONDITION “MEH”: possible #tropical system forming in northeastern Gulf of Mexico near #Florida
The system that has been migrating northeast over the last couple of days is organized enough to cause the National Hurricane Center to issue a special advisory and raise the chance of formation to 80% … The main threat from AL91 (which would become Tropical Depression 13 and, if strong enough or somebody gets out … Continue reading →
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