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Quick 11am #Ian Monday update

Nothing much changed in the NHC 11am forecast, so the blog post this morning still holds up. Tampa/St Pete area are now (wisely) triggering evacuations since the storm is forecast to brush the coast and a little wobble would be catastrophic. This could be the worst storm for Tampa/St Pete/Tarpon Springs since the 1921 storm … Continue reading

#Ian Monday (26 Sept) Morning

TLDR: Ian has started the expected turn and intensification process. Western Cuba will be hit hard tomorrow, Tampa area in crosshairs Wednesday?, but tracks still have a lot of spread. Coastal GA/SC minor impacts Friday. Here are the details and impact estimates … Overnight Ian became much better organized. As I write this the sun … Continue reading

Brief Sunday Evening (25 Sept) #Ian update

Ian still isn’t very organized, which makes it harder for the track models to converge. The general steering should take it across Cuba then along or near the west coast of Florida before landfall in the panhandle or Big Bend. Conditions are prime for explosive intensity growth. But the exact track of course matters a … Continue reading

Supertyphoon #Noru (#Karding) and the #Philippines

Super Typhoon Noru, named Karding by the Philippines weather service since they use different names, is making landfall today. It is expected to pass just north of Manila on the main island of Luzon, and is expected to cause catastrophic damage … After that the storm is expected to cross the South China Sea, regain … Continue reading

#Ian Sunday (25 Sept) Morning Update

Summary: Ian is still forecast to rapidly intensify today. Western Cuba is bracing for a Cat 3 landfall, and Ian could be a Cat 4 by Tuesday Evening. The Florida Keys are on alert but likely to be on the fringes, no actions at the moment. The models then start to diverge, but landfall in … Continue reading

Tropical Storm #Ian; #Fiona makes landfall

The forecast picture for Tropical Storm (and likely Hurricane) Ian and the extent of risk to Florida and, more importantly, Coastal GA/SC 😛 is becoming clearer. Fiona isn’t really a hurricane any more even though it has hurricane force winds, and has made landfall in Canada. We’ll start with a quick look at Fiona, then … Continue reading

TD 9 (new storm) forecast: Is Florida Doomed?

Well, yes, it is Florida after all. But what about the new storm that formed in the Caribbean? Will it hit the US? How bad will it be? Lets take a closer look. 11am update: nothing much changed. Will probably be tomorrow before we have anything substantive to talk about, although it’s likely TD9 will … Continue reading

Atlantic Update 22 Sept 2022

Fiona will pass by Bermuda tonight, bringing winds up to 90mph, power outages, and some damage. After that it looks to hit northern Nova Scotia Saturday on the current track, and if the NHC intensity is right, winds upwards of 100 MPH across Cape Breton Island. This is a track shift south a bit from … Continue reading

Invest AL98

There are two active storms in the Atlantic, Hurricane Fiona (NHC Key Messages regarding Hurricane Fiona) should pass close enough to cause moderate impacts to Bermuda before making landfall in the Canadian Maritime provinces Saturday Night/Sunday. The US East Coast will see dangerous rip currents from its waves this week. Gaston may be best, and … Continue reading

Tropics update: #Fiona continues, #Nanmadol aftermath

Very busy the last few days in the natural disaster end of things. Just a couple of quick notes. Fiona has strengthened to a Category 3 hurricane and is still drafting rain bands across the already flooded Puerto Rico; the edges are blasting through the Turks and Caicos. After passing Bermuda Thursday morning (probably close … Continue reading

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