Atlantic Update 22 Sept 2022

Fiona will pass by Bermuda tonight, bringing winds up to 90mph, power outages, and some damage. After that it looks to hit northern Nova Scotia Saturday on the current track, and if the NHC intensity is right, winds upwards of 100 MPH across Cape Breton Island. This is a track shift south a bit from yesterday. Here’s the forecast damage swath with “plain language” impacts:

click any image to embiggen.

So Atlantic Canada should expect a big blow this weekend.

The tropical wave that has the weather doomers excited (invest AL98) has passed the windward islands and has entered the far south-east Caribbean. Conditions there are not too favorable, but by the time it reaches the central Caribbean conditions are likely to be better and a tropical depression or storm should form this weekend if not sooner. The global models still bring the storm over the Yucatan straits or western Cuba, but after that there is some dispersion. Some (such as the 00z European model) take the storm across Florida, but GFS keeps creeping west. I again warn that model forecasts for a storm that doesn’t even exist yet are notoriously unreliable, especially at the 5-10 day outlook range. So while it provides endless fodder for people who desperately need you to click and watch, it’s not really productive for you. Here is the current dispersion map (a measure of forecast position uncertainty) … as can be seen, even at 5 days (120 hours) it’s pretty broad:

Bottom line: AL98 is going to cause rain and maybe some gusty winds across northern Central America (Venezuela, Columbia) and the ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao). Beyond that, we’ll just have to wait and see.

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