#Fiona to make landfall in #PuertoRico, #Nanmadol and #Japan

We have two tropical cyclone landfalls today (and a weak near miss on the west coast of Mexico). First lets look at Tropical Storm Fiona. Here are links to NHC’s Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Fiona (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Fiona continues to organize and eye-like feature is seen in the radar from San Juan …

San Juan NEXRAD, 5:25am Saturday. Click any image to enlarge.

By this afternoon, shortly before landfall in western Puerto Rico, Fiona might be a hurricane. It’s a race between strength/organization and the impacts of land as it gets closer to the mountains of the island, which disrupt the circulation. The thinking is that it won’t hurt too much as a lot of the circulation will stay over water on this track and the time over land brief. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic are likely to get a lot of heavy rain and gusty winds – the winds at higher elevations and over ridge lines will almost certainly exceed hurricane force. Flash flooding and power outages are inevitable. Here are the projected impacts from my TAOS/TC model, based on the Hurricane Center official forecast:

On this track, over six million people are in the damage swath, and Puerto Rico will likely have economic impacts over $1 Billion USD. The Turks and Caicos and southern Bahamas will likely feel impacts from Fiona tomorrow, which will probably be a hurricane by the time it passes them. After that the models show a lot of intensification, and Fiona may be a major hurricane (cat 3 or higher) by the time it threatens Bermuda late this week. To be clear, there is no risk to the mainland US on this track, aside from rip currents at the beaches due to waves. Vinland (Newfoundland) and maybe Nova Scotia might get some impacts in 10 days or so but that’s a long ways out and uncertain.

On the other side of the world, Japan is bracing for Typhoon Nanmadol (Link to NHK/Japan coverage in English, live video is here). This has the potential to cause major damage across most of the main islands depending on the exact track and how quickly it decays. On the current Joint Typhoon Warning Center (US Military) track, shown below, the storm is expected to cause about $6 Billion in damage, with 70 million people in the tropical storm force wind swath.

The official Japan Meteorological Agency forecast has the storm a bit more intense and to the west, with impacts correspondingly higher – on the order of $23 Billion USD! This goes to show how much the forecasts by two different, experienced teams of meteorologists can be for the same storm … here is what the impact swath looks like using the JMA forecast:

click any image to embiggen.

Oh, and if that’s not enough, there was a strong earthquake in Taiwan with several hundred million dollars in damage. Not a great weekend …

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