Watching #Fiona notes

Since we have a storm that might look like it’s going to impact the mainland US, just a reminder that I don’t normally do rapid-fire, ZOMG THERE’S A NEW MODEL RUN OR FORECAST! LOOK AT ME! kinds of posts. Usually I do a big post in the mornings, and only post updates during the day if there is a significant change. Seriously, it’s just not worth the stress, these things usually don’t change that fast.

click to embiggen the 11am satellite image and NHC storm overlay.

But since I’m here, nothing much changed with the 11am NHC forecast. Slight track shift, maybe some potential for a stronger storm after it exits Hispaniola (Dominican Republic), but no significant change in the guidance this morning. If you’re not in the northern Caribbean or (as of this morning) southern Bahamas/Turks and Caicos, no need to do anything or freak out just yet unless you need the exercise. If you are in those places, follow the NHC and local guidance for tropical storm warnings. Tropical storm conditions will hit the Leeward Islands this afternoon, and spread across the Virgin Islands (US and British) and should reach Puerto Rico tomorrow afternoon or evening.

I just heard on the radio news again that Fiona “may threaten the US.” Well, if you mean pass by hundreds of miles offshore, then sure, that’s the current scenario (as noted this morning). It will probably brush the southern Bahamas then head towards Bermuda. Worth checking in Saturday, Sunday morning at the latest to see if that’s changed, but otherwise be chill 😛 (can’t believe I wrote that).

Those of you who watch the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook will note a couple of disturbances in addition to Fiona, but they both are currently of low chance of formation (20% or less). No need to worry about them right now.

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