#Fiona Friday

Although NHC found stronger winds, Fiona is still a very sheared system this morning. Here’s the TAFB analysis, notice the center of circulation (the tropical storm symbol) is still on the edge of the dense clouds, and there is a lot of dry (orange) air in the storm:

Click for detailed view.

Other than a stronger storm, nothing much has changed since yesterday except the longer range model guidance is more consistent. Here is this morning’s model dispersion analysis, which shows where we would expect the storm to end up based on the major global models:

So the NHC forecast is for a bit stronger storm, and shifted a bit south and west, but not terribly different from yesterday. Here are the Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Fiona. And here is the latest damage swath using my TAOS/TC model, based on the 5am ET official forecast:

click any image to embiggen.

On this track the storm will likely cause a fair amount of impacts across the leeward islands, Puerto Rico. Power outages, roof damage, and in steeper terrain mudslides and flash flooding are all likely. There are over 12 million people in the damage swath, mostly in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Damage could approach $1 Billion if the storm maintains intensity, as the official forecast (supported by the models) shows.

Beyond the NHC forecast (which, I again remind everyone, the NHC forecast is the only thing you should be using for decision making unless you have very specialized needs and expert, site specific advice) it looks like the storm will turn out to sea and parallel the US East Coast. Unlike yesterday, the modeling is pretty consistent showing that. Of course since the track is pointed towards the US, it will give the chattering class something to talk about, and the infamous Cone of Shame might fall close to or even touch the coast next week. While the southern Bahamas are within the potential threat area, as noted yesterday at the moment the mainland US isn’t under direct threat, given the meteorological setup. So if in the Caribbean, definitely move forward with taking protective measures and monitor the NHC site (updates every three hours at this point) and check local news updates regularly. For the mainland US, still no need to get excited, check back in tomorrow or the next day.

1 thought on “#Fiona Friday

  1. Pingback: Watching #Fiona notes | Enki Research

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s