#Invest area in the #Atlantic

As the sun rises over the eastern Atlantic this morning, media weather personalities are breathlessly generating gigabyles of content over an “invest area”. Here’s a quick overview. On the visual band image it’s hard to pick out the system …

click to embiggen. Notice the tilt of the terminator (the line between day and night) since we are so close to the summer solstice (June 21st), the maximum of the year at 23.5 degrees.

The global forecast models are all tracking some kind of organized low spinning up from this tropical wave in 4-5 days, and the US National Hurricane Center gives it a 50% chance of becoming a depression over the next five days. Here is the obligatory spaghetti map showing the major global track models … there is a remarkable consensus in the track given it’s not very organized yet:

Raw spaghetti. Do not consume until cooked.

The TLDR is a tropical depression will likely form this weekend or early next week as the system approaches Barbados, and there is the potential for a tropical storm to spin up from that as it makes its way across the southern Caribbean. There are no “magic words” in the NHC tropical weather outlook, so nothing specific to worry about at this point. Those in the Caribbean might want to double check your hurricane supplies and plans if your haven’t already, but again nothing to get excited about if you’ve done your pre-season prep.

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