Quick look at the tropics; nothing terribly concerning at the moment.

Most of the world is quiet from a tropical standpoint. There are a couple of areas on the US National Hurricane Center’s five day outlook. The one with the highest potential is just off the west coast of Mexico. Here’s a quick look at the areas tagged in the outlook …

NHC’s Five Day Outlook formation probabilities

The system off of Mexico might spin up into a depression over the next couple of days. The main model runs keep it just offshore, some upwards of a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane, but the ensemble runs have a bit of a “squashed spider” look to them. Once a circulation forms the forecasts should stabilize. The other two areas aren’t anything to worry about for a few days.

2 thoughts on “Quick look at the tropics; nothing terribly concerning at the moment.

    • That’s a bit of a misconception. The dust itself doesn’t actually suppress the activity, but to quote from the NOAA Saharan Air Layer research page, “The warmth, dryness, and strong winds associated with the Saharan Air Layer have been shown to suppress tropical cyclone (hurricane) formation and intensification.” In other words the conditions that cause it to be dusty are what makes it harder for hurricanes to form, not the dust itself. One thing the dust does is make it easier to see that layer on satellite images, so it’s a good indicator of unfavorable conditions.

      Liked by 1 person

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