PTC1 on Saturday Morning (4 June)

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is still an unrealized potential, and shows no signs of organization before the associated mess of rain squalls moves past Florida. Here is what it looks like on InfraRed satellite (the sun isn’t up yet as I write this):

Click any image to embiggen.

There are actually several “centers” depending on how you define that, including the small convection-free swirl of clouds you can see in the center of the image. NHC thinks this mess will consolidate into a single center once it moves past Florida and The Bahamas, but they are off the hook for a real tropical storm. That doesn’t mean that some rain squalls with tropical storm force winds won’t pass by this morning, but more like the typical summer downpours and thunderstorms than a real tropical storm.

For being such a disorganized mess the track models and forecasts are remarkably consistent, taking it out parallel to the US Southeast coast towards Bermuda. There is still a chance that this will develop briefly in to Tropical Storm Alex before it gets there, but it will likely be short lived before conditions deteriorate and it becomes extratropical.

Raw spaghetti. Not for human consumption until cooked.

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