Cyclone #Gombe and #Mozambique

Cyclone Gombe passed over northern Madagascar as a tropical storm, but has intensified over the Mozambique Channel and is now forecast to make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane (although I’m sort of skeptical, JTWC has been a big high on landfall intensity forecasts lately). Either way, potentially a billion dollar storm with 3.8 million people in the damage swath …

click to embiggen.

A big risk is rain – up to 70cm (two feet) in places …

Southeast Africa has been hit with multiple storms this season. Madagascar in particular has been hard hit, with Gombe being the 5th storm so far. There is some concern that Gombe may curve back over water, re-intensify, and hit the southern end of the Island in 7-10 days. The deep blue track is the GFS model, the red line is the official forecast (which only goes to 120 hours):

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