#Ukraine situation spiral, and the moment of crisis is now likely at hand

Watching President Putin’s speech (on both Russia-1 and CNN, until I cut off CNN in disgust) recognizing the independence of the Luhansk and Donets regions that broke away from Ukraine in 2014, and now he is signing mutual aid agreements with the LPR and DPR. That means that Russia now has the formal legal basis to intervene. Now, I’ll bet that isn’t how this will be spun in the US media. You will be told that it has been Russia that started this, but take a look at this map generated this weekend by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) (who, if anything, are biased against Russia). These are artillery impact locations (explosions) and cease fire violations.

Click to embiggen.

If you look at this and other reports recently, the vast majority of violations have been directed at the areas that declared independence. This is in violation of the Minsk II accords, and to be blunt clearly places the Government of Ukraine (and their backers) in the wrong. So the feces is about to hit the air moving device. Before jumping to conclusions, and buying in to the propaganda (especially, I’m sad to say, coming from the US/NATO side), please read up on the history of how we got here (link to long background post). As I’ve said elsewhere, I understand why the US wants Ukraine to commit “suicide by bear,” I just don’t understand why Ukraine (other than the minority of ultra-right, neo Nazi groups) wants to.

I was infuriated at the CNN coverage, that for a while I had on in the background. The real time translation was horrible, and the cutaway to a “reporter” halfway that called Putin’s review of history a “diatribe” was unprofessional. To be sure his view of history was biased, but it was an interesting and a not entirely wrong depiction. The reporting was typically shallow as well- but that’s the state of “journalism” in the US these days. And it’s helping to push us into yet another unnecessary war, only this time it isn’t with a fourth or fifth rate power like Iraq, it is with a peer military that may well have the edge in certain conventional systems – not to mention nukes. Hopefully the US/NATO has the sense to not make this worse by trying to intervene in a big way and turn it in to a general conflict, but wait for the Russian intervention to stabilize things. As I’ve said repeatedly I don’t expect Russia to conquer all of Ukraine, only the eastern areas (aka Novorossiya).

4 thoughts on “#Ukraine situation spiral, and the moment of crisis is now likely at hand

  1. This is indeed frightening. I have read all your posts on Ukraine on your blog (including your nuclear ones) and it appears that the US and to a lesser extent some Europeans are blindly stumbling into a war. We can only hope that Putin shows some restraint and Biden’s handlers come to their senses (can Neocons do that?) and don’t get militarily involved. The U.S. establishment thinks it’s 1990 and we are the only super power (when as you and others have pointed out it’s 2022 and we have “lost” two wars in the Middle East and both Russia and China have militarys that are in some respects more advanced than the U.S.). Let’s hope we (the U.S. just uses sanctions).
    And thanks for all the cogent and insightful writing.


  2. Do you know of a good translation of the speech I could read? It seems to be very important and I would like to read the entirety of it for myself rather than the selective quotes I see in news stories. Thank you for your time.


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