Tropics got busy again – sort of (11 Oct 2021)

We’ve now got four active tropical cyclones – three in the West Pacific, and one off of Mexico, along with a couple of low probability disturbances in the Atlantic. Let’s start with the East Pacific (Mexico) since that’s the more serious threat …

Tropical Storm Pamela is expected to become a major hurricane in the next few days before making landfall north of Mazatlán. If that forecast holds it could cause a significant amount of damage. Here are links to NHC’s Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Pamela, and from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional.

Click any image to embiggen.

There are three systems in the West Pacific. Namtheun is expected to stay well offshore from Japan. Lionrock has already crossed Hainan Island (China) and is raining out over Hanoi Vietnam today. Tropical Storm Kompasu is crossing just north of the northernmost island of the Philippines on its way to Hainan (who did they annoy?). Of the three it has the most damage potential, but impacts should be less than $30 Million in China.

Saving the least for last, NHC has two disturbances tagged on their Tropical Weather Outlook this morning, both with only 20% formation chances over the next five days. No magic words, but NHC cautions that heavy rainfall is possible across the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola the next few days.

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