Invest off of North Carolina (Sat 9 Oct 2021)

There is a low pressure system embedded within a complex mess of weather is trying to form just off the coast of the Carolinas. The US National Hurricane Center has it at a 40% chance of tropical formation, and has started using the “Magic Words” and saying that “Interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor this system.” Here is the TAFB analysis with the GOES East IR view this morning …

click to embiggen.

The system of interest is the “L” in the center, next to the box labeled “DVLPG GALE” (Developing Gale). It’s not likely to become a significant storm in the hurricane sense, but if you are right on the North Carolina coast (the Outer Banks) it may be breezy. The “storm” is expected to move slowly northwest; if nothing develops by Sunday it’s not going to happen.

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