#Shaheen landfall near #Sohar #Oman, Atlantic Update, things that go boom

There is only one tropical cyclone that is a serious threat to land, Cyclone Shaheen at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, although there are three other active storms. And of course there is the eruption of the volcano on La Palma continuing to intensify. Here’s some details …

Cyclone Shaheen (formerly Gulab) is a hurricane headed towards Oman. While unusual, this isn’t rare, but it is all the more disruptive since they don’t happen too often. Given the fragility of energy markets at the moment, and as noted before traders don’t usually need anything more than an excuse for price volatility, it is something to watch. The 5am ET Saturday JTWC forecast has the storm making landfall as a hurricane just south of Sohar, Oman tomorrow evening. A slight shift northward could bring the major oil and gas complexes at Fujairah, UAE within the impact zones …

click to enlarge

With the increased intensity forecast and track shift, the potential impacts of Shaheen have risen quite a bit, to the $1 to $2 Billion range. JTWC forecasts tend to be on the high side, so that may be a bit high and an estimate in the $500m range may be more realistic, but given the impacts of Cyclone Gonu in 2005 the higher numbers are certainly possible.

In the Atlantic, Sam has safely passed Bermuda and is tracking north towards Iceland. The only impacts on the Canadian Maritime Provinces and the benighted points south of the border are waves and rip currents. Likewise, Tropical Storm Victor is fading away further to the south and east, not threat to anyone but fish. You don’t often see the words tropical storm and Russia in the same sentence, but the fading Mindulle has passed offshore of Japan and is expected to complete its extratropical transition over the Kuril Islands and pass near the Kamchatka Peninsula.

Finally, the ongoing eruption of Cumbre Veija on the island of La Palma continues to cause damage, chasing people from their homes. The main lava flow has reached the ocean, generating clouds of steam and – more dangerously – toxic chlorine fumes (from the salt water). Here is some spectacular video of the eruption, with two new vents opening. There is a lot of, um, “stuff” floating around the intertubes about the potential for a catastrophic tsunami from this volcano. Grumpy cat says “how about no.” While a local tsunami for areas near the volcano is definitely possible in the even the eruption becomes explosive, the chances of a major tsunami impacting the US east coast from this is pretty close to nil. And the longer the eruption goes on, and the more seismic activity, the less likely the 150 foot wall of water sweeping across the US east coast becomes (and to be clear, it was always much smaller than, say, a similar event from and asteroid or comet impact – which again is very small). So if you just have to worry, worry about the fools driving crazy on I-16 with all the construction (a local Savannah thing right now).

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