Doomwatch, 26 Sept 2021: Supertyphoon #Mindulle and #Japan, #Gulab and #India, Hurricane #Sam and, well, nobody but fish

There are two major (Saffir Simpson Category 3 or higher) storms stalking the earth this morning, but only one is threatening land. There are also earthquakes, volcanoes, and of course the SARS-COV-2. Here’s the overview …

click any image to embiggen.

One thing that stands out on the dashboard are all the earthquakes. None seems to have caused any significant damage, but there have been a lot of them the last three days. As for tropical cyclones, we have two that are threatening land. Cyclone Gulab is making landfall today as a weak storm hitting the east coast of India. It’s hard for a storm to hit India and not impact millions of people, given the population density. Economic impacts should be in the 10’s of millions of US Dollars of equivalent purchasing power parity damage …

In the western Pacific, Supertyphoon Mindulle is starting to recurve north and is forecast to be just offshore Tokyo in about five days. On this track impacts would be light, but a wobble to the left could be Very Bad, so this needs watching …

In the Atlantic, Major Hurricane Sam is a small but very intense hurricane. Fortunately on the current track there is no one in the way for the next five days according to the official forecast …

The track models are tightly grouped over that period. Longer range, it may be an issue for Bermuda, but that’s at least 7-10 days away. Nobody else needs to worry about this one. For perspective here are the long range track models … and for my Canadian friends, way too early to get excited, 10 day forecasts are really iffy especially for tropical systems that far north.

Elsewhere, Teresa is no more, so all of the telenovela references I had planned will have to wait until 2027 in the hopes a storm more deserving of the name shows up. There’s a couple of waves coming off of Africa the chattering class will likely talk about since Sam isn’t a problem. Feel free to ignore them.

I haven’t said much about the pandemic lately because from a scientific and emergency response standpoint there’s not much to say other than global governance is a (colorful language deleted) mess. Like so many issues, this isn’t a technical problem, it’s a political problem. Pick any aspect – masks, vaccinations (who, with what, and when), movement restrictions, natural immunity, and so forth, the technical aspects of public health and medicine are secondary and even tertiary to the politics. In the US, both political parties are criminally negligent in the matter, and internationally the situation isn’t a lot better (and often worse in developing countries). As long as people keep electing (or tolerating, or having forced on them) incompetent leaders you will get incompetent results.

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