Hurricane #Sam Update (Friday 24 Sept 2021)

With the 5am advisory this morning NHC upgraded Sam to a hurricane. It’s a compact storm, a little ragged on this morning’s imagery, but should be in a favorable environment the next few days and is on track to become a major (Category 3 or higher) hurricane …

Sam is the swirl on the right … click to embiggen this IR (left) and visual (right) view from GOES East.

Although the intensity forecast is scary, the track at this point isn’t. Here is the current TAOS/TC damage swath for the next five days, based on the latest (5am ET) NHC forecast …

Compared to yesterday, the models are in a bit better alignment, which is typical when a storm spins up and there is a more organized storm to “lock on” to. All of the long term tracks take the storm to the north of the Leeward Islands and up in the vicinity of Bermuda in 7-10 days or so. So no watches, warnings, or even a “key messages” products since as of now, Sam is not a threat to land.

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