Atlantic Update 17 Sept 2021

Nothing has really changed that much, the remnants of Nicholas continue to be a flash flood risk along the TX/LA coast. There are three disturbances on the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook. Here is this morning’s TAFB analysis map on the GOES East Infrared view (I added the red labels for the three disturbances discussed in the TWO) …

of course it can be embiggened.

From right to left (east to west), the one in the Cape Verde islands (NHC DB3) is ignore-worthy. The other two both have 70% chances, but that’s the chances of becoming a tropical depression or storm, not the chances it will kill you. The one in the mid-Atlantic, DB1 (AL952021) has the “magic words”:

... a tropical depression is still likely to form over the weekend or early next week while moving toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic and then near or north of the Leeward Islands by Monday and Tuesday. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days.

So if you’re in the Leeward Islands, monitor it, and be ready to act if something untoward happens. Not in the Leeward islands, don’t worry about it. The global models aren’t doing much with this one; GFS has it taking a sharp right turn as a disorganized low (not even a depression).

The disturbance just off the US coast (NHC’s DB2, AL962021 in the ATCF ID’s) may also briefly become a storm. After pointing out it is disorganized and elongated, NHC goes on to say …

... this system is still likely to become a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm before it makes a transition to a non-tropical gale-force low by Saturday or Saturday night while moving northeastward at about 15 mph away from the United States mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. coasts and Atlantic Canada through this weekend.

So beware rip currents this weekend.

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