Where did it go? (Update for 16 Sept 2021)

To reinforce what was said (repeatedly) over time about models and people who get excited about long range forecasts, take a look at this comparison of the GFS 850mb winds from runs at 00z yesterday and today, for Friday the 24th at 8pm:

Swipe left to see current forecast (no storm), swipe right to see yesterday (with storm)

So the various blogs and weather channels that spend a lot of time talking about this stuff are potentially getting you worked up for nothing and wasting your time (well, they are making money off of your fear and angst, but that’s another story).

Most invests and disturbances don’t ever become anything, and even a high formation probability can quickly drop to zero, just as one with a low probability can quickly spin up. Those odds are as much art as science. In either case, as I so often point out, no matter what anyone is saying, if the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook does not have the magic words “Interests <somewhere> should <do something>”, or if it does and you aren’t <somewhere>, then please don’t worry about it and switch off anyone who says you should. The same applies to a live storm – no mention of your area in the “key messages” graphic, no need to worry.

Here’s the current view of the situation in the Atlantic. The remains of Nicholas are still dumping rain in the US South, there is a system off the US East coast that will be generating high surf (and rip currents) across the coast, but if it spins up looks to stay offshore. NHC sent in an airplane yesterday – it didn’t find anything – and will do so again today given how close it is to the US coast. As for the thing off of Africa (AL95), satellite data isn’t showing significant development yet, but it does have potential to become a tropical cyclone. Here’s the TAFB situation map for the Atlantic this morning:

Click to embiggen;

Chanthu is slowly moving away from the China coast off Shanghai, and will be sweeping across Japan as a weakening system. Mostly a rain threat at this point. Elsewhere it’s fairly quiet for this time of year …

If you aren’t familiar with weather maps and symbols, here is a video primer (link) from the Univ of Illinois, and a web primer from NOAA (Link).

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