Sunday Morning TC Update: #Shanghai #China, #Olympics, #Florida

Of the three tropical cyclone (hurricane) threats, only one is serious at the moment. Typhoon In-Fa has made landfall just south of Shanghai, placing over 114 Million people in tropical storm conditions. Here’s the damage swath:

click any image to embiggen.

It’s always tricky to estimate damages in China due to currency and purchasing power conversion issues. Juggling all the numbers on estimated infrastructure, etc. we get about $2 Billion US Dollars. I suspect that it’s probably higher than that, more like the equivalent of a $5 Billion event for the US.

The second event is tropical storm Nepartak. It’s forecast to be a minimal storm, and ordinarily wouldn’t merit much comment, but it is on track to pass over Japan in the next three days – right in the middle of the Olympics people are starting to call “cursed.” Hopefully it won’t be too disruptive – the winds will be minimal across most of the country. The biggest problems will be heavy rain across Northern Japan. There are only two areas of concern, Miyagi Stadium and Sapporo Dome, both football venues. Hopefully this won’t be too disruptive further south around Tokyo, where the vast majority of events are being held (the pink balloons in the map below):

Last and certainly least, the US National Hurricane Center is monitoring a low pressure system that has been lurking over the southeast, and is now offshore from Florida. The best bet is it will drift towards Jacksonville, dumping some rain on Florida, Georgia, and the South Carolina coast and midlands. NHC gives it a 50% chance of becoming a depression. It’s not very organized, with convection displaced well away from the center, although satellite radar has picked up some scattered intermittent tropical storm force winds. An airplane is going in to investigate later today. I wouldn’t be surprised if NHC does start advisories, given how close to shore it is, just in case a surge of organization before “landfall” causes it to meet the narrow technical definitions of a tropical cyclone. Either way, this will more than likely be a non-event from a major impact standpoint. Worst case is some wind, flooding in the same places it floods every time there is a summer downpour, scattered power outages, etc. Here’s the current track models – be aware these lines are all well below hurricane force, most aren’t even tropical depression, just tracking the “center” of the low …

The damage swath map using GFS is boring, so I’m not bothering. Enjoy the rest of the weekend!

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