Squashed spiders and magic words

The low pressure system off the coast of Florida hasn’t changed much as of Saturday morning, although NHC now has the probability of a tropical depression forming at medium (50%). Note that this advisory has the magic words (in bold):

Satellite data indicate that the low pressure system located about 150 miles east of Daytona Beach, Florida, remains elongated and not well defined. In addition, showers and thunderstorms are currently limited near the low. However, environmental conditions are
expected to become a little more favorable for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two while the low meanders offshore or near the Florida peninsula. Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.


As I constantly rant, NHC is pretty good in how they phrase these advisories. If you see the words “interests in <somewhere> should <do something>” and you are <somewhere> then <do something>. If you aren’t <somewhere>, you can probably not worry about it too much and give your refresh key a break.

The track models this morning are a pretty classic “squashed spider” look:

The blue line going to Florida is the most likely … click to embiggen.

The main threat from this system will probably be rain; it doesn’t seem that any of the models are enthusiastic about it becoming more than a minimal tropical storm. So if it does come ashore, that’s flooded streets, a few limbs down, scattered power outages. If you live in Florida (or GA/SC for that matter), if you’ve not raided your hurricane snack supplies, this shouldn’t be a big deal. Otherwise, this should at worst be a time to rethink your plans in case a real storm comes along later this year.

1 thought on “Squashed spiders and magic words

  1. Pingback: Tropical Depression #Mindy, Hurricane #Larry, Typhoon #Chanthu and #Taiwan, #China | Enki Research

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