Still watching the West Pacific (#Taiwan, #China, #Japan), NHC’s Yellow Blob near SEUS

Typhoon In-Fa is over the small southern Ryuku Island of Miyako-jima this morning, fortunately having weakened a bit from its peak of 95 knots (borderline Category 3) to 80 knots (strong Category 1). Here is the projected damage swath:

click any graphic to embiggen.

It looks like Taiwan will be largely spared, although heavy rains continue over the north end of the island. However, the decaying storm looks to bring some additional misery to mainland China, which has suffered from a series of floods. The exact track here will matter a lot, as landfall is currently forecast to be just south of Shanghai. While current damage forecasts are for around $1 Billion USD in China, slight changes in the track or intensity could cause this number to drop by 50% or jump by a factor of five! Landfall is expected Sunday afternoon/evening – we should have a better estimate of impacts tomorrow.

There are two other West Pacific systems – Typhoon Cempaka is now a depression and is dissipating over the Gulf of Tonkin, whereas invest area WP90 is now a subtropical storm/depression. JTWC has not started advisories, but the Japan Meteorological Agency has, with projected landfall near Iwaki, in the middle of the main island of Honshu (100miles/160km northeast of Tokyo). Here’s the current (Friday AM US East Coast time) track cloud …

JTWC will probably start tracking today or tomorrow. It looks like this will more than likely be more rain than wind, but given the Olympics, needs to be carefully watched.

In the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center has a yellow blob of doom just off the Georgia coast. A very weak low has drifted offshore, and should meander there for a few days. NHC gives it a 30% chance of spinning up in then next five days, but the latest model runs aren’t terribly enthusiastic. Anyway, here is a terrifying picture of the low just off of Savannah, showing the winds and 850mb heights (how high up the 850mb pressure level is, normally it is about 5000 feet. Lower and circular isopleths are an indication of structure and strength).

GFS model 5am ET 850mb Heights (9hr forecast)

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