Invest off SE US Coast

NWS has started track models on the thing off the SE US coast. To reiterate, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) only has this tagged with a 30% chance of spinning up right now, but there has been a burst of offshore convection, as seen on the current (10:20am) satellite images:

AL90 – Center of circulation is at the north edge (upper ) of the thick bubbly clouds off Florida

If you just insist on uncooked pasta, here’s the early track models:

Over time more will either lock on to a circulation or not. Best bet right now is a drift south towards the Bahamas and then inland over Florida, not becoming a tropical storm. The 8am discussion didn’t have any red flags, so nothing to worry about right now.

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