#Elsa Thursday morning 8 July Update

Elsa blew through Georgia last night and is currently (just before 6am ET) in South Carolina, on track along the east coast to Canada. Here’s the latest NHC forecast track and TAOS/TC model impact swath:

Forecast impact swath – click to embiggen.

Here is the composite radar. Almost all of the major impacts of the storm are to the north and east of the center of the comma shaped system, although even behind there are scattered thunderstorms and it will take a while for things to calm down today.

MRMS Radar composite at 5:10am

As is typical for a tropical storm, damage across Florida and Georgia so far seems spotty, although there are reports of one killed in Jacksonville from a falling tree, and ten injured at the Kings Bay Navy Base from a possible weak tornado. There were a lot of radar indicated tornado warnings across FL/GA/SC last night, not clear as of yet how many were actual funnel clouds. There was also some flooding and scattered power outages. Although the radar derived rain totals were about three inches across most of Savannah, for example, there was a band of totals over six inches across the east side and up towards the Beaufort SC where a trail of thunderstorms set up and brought heavy rain:

Radar rain accumulations across Savannah/Beaufort area

At our gauge near Daffin Park (near the first “a” in “Savannah” on the above map) we received 4.62 inches. As the sun comes up and reports are compiled we’ll have a better picture, but so far seems about as expected.

Elsa will continue this pattern across northern SC and North Carolina today as it transitions from being a tropical to an extratropical system. The Marine Provinces of Canada can expect Nor’easter like conditions Friday/Saturday as Elsa finally lets us go and heads into the unknown 😛

As a reminder, Elsa caused more significant impacts across the Caribbean. While perhaps not directly related, the political turmoil in Haiti is in part a result of the interaction of natural disasters such as the horrific 2010 earthquake and human failures of governance both local and from the international community and NGO’s. It’s a complex situation with a lot of history. And given that history while it’s unlikely, we can hope and pray that the political leaders (both in Haiti and here in the US who are considering various actions) at least don’t do what they usually do: make things worse.

2 thoughts on “#Elsa Thursday morning 8 July Update

  1. Out on Skiddaway my rain gauge read just shy of 6” of rain, most of which happened in about 2 hours. The wind speed here in the woods never topped 15mph but the tops of the tall trees were swaying with what looked like a lot more up there. I haven’t really finished the software to talk to the new weather station device yet, so those numbers might be totally wrong 😉


    • In Midtown Savannah at our station near Daffin Park we had a peak one minute of 24 mph with a 30 mph gust (10 meters above ground level – above rooftops, fairly open but below the average tree tops, probably reflective of the upper canopy stress). At the surface (2 meters) 23 mph gust, peak one minute average of 12 mph.


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