Tropics Update – 12 June 2021

We have one weak system to look at, WP05, which is presently a depression over Hainan Island and forecast to become a weak tropical storm before making landfall in Vietnam. The biggest threat is rain and mudslides in the mountains.

Elsewhere, there are two “invest” areas (systems that have formation potential, and are organized enough for the models to start tracking) being watched in the eastern Pacific. Here is GFS based forecast tracks. along with the conditions for development over the next 48 hours …

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NHC gives each of these a 40 percent chances of becoming storms. Another area that will be getting some attention is that faint blue blob in the southern Gulf of Mexico. It’s not organized enough to be an invest area, but NHC is watching it as has some potential for something to form next week. They have it tagged in their five day forecast as having a 30% potential for development. You’ll also note a band of blue off of the US East coast – conditions are somewhat favorable, but nothing organized on the horizon.

In short, stormy weather for Vietnam, may a weak storm hitting southern Mexico in two days with mostly rain, and the usual angst inducing conditions in that bathtub known as the Gulf of Mexico. Got your hurricane plans ready? Still time to think about that in the US …

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