How dangerous is COVID? How about the COVID Vaccines?

We’re starting to get enough data to draw some conclusions. TLDR: COVID is dangerous – 4.5 times more deadly than the 2017 Influenza strain, which was a bad one. With the caveat that the long term studies are still underway for a lot of at-risk populations, COVID itself is about 215 times more deadly than the vaccine. The COVID vaccine isn’t really significantly more dangerous than the Influenza vaccine. Here’s a bit more detail and context …

You can’t get this vaccine for some reason.

There is a lot of argument and discussion over the relative risk of COVID vaccines, especially in Europe with the reports of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine potentially causing blood clots in some people, and the Polyethylene Glycol (PEG) in the mRNA vaccines causing anaphylaxis (allergic reactions) here in the US. Both are concerning – and there is an urgent need to figure out why certain people are more vulnerable to adverse reactions than others. Certainly those with known allergies should be very careful to check the components of each vaccine before receiving it – the CDC publishes guidelines for this, and if you have sensitivities check with your Doctor before getting a shot (or any) procedure. This is the dilemma of vaccination: it’s best for the vast majority of people, but can be dangerous for a few. But care must be taken not to blow that true statement out of proportion.

What are the overall risks – in context with other risks? Lets take a closer look at the data from the FDA’s Adverse Event Reporting System as well as the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics data bases and a few other data bases at CDC, NHTSA, and the FBI for context. Here is what your chances of dying this year look like:

  • Chances of dying from COVID: 1 in 163
  • Chances of dying from COVID Vaccine: 1 in 35,000
  • Chances of dying from Influenza (2017 H5N1 strain): 1 in 740
  • Chances of dying from Influenza Vaccine: 1 in 100,000
  • Chances of dying in any Accident: 1 in 1,350
  • Chances of dying from Gun Violence (you are a criminal): 1 in 3,000
  • Chances of dying from Gun Violence (you are not a criminal):1 in 220,000
  • Chances of dying from a Weather or Earthquake Hazard: 1 in 2 million or so

So in context, the vaccines are not risky compared to the disease – and certainly not compared to dying in a car accident (1 in 6000 or so). There has been some reports and talk that the COVID vaccines are significantly more dangerous than the Influenza vaccines. That’s a bit hard to judge. For one thing, the COVID vaccines are being scrutinized in a way the Influenza shots have not been. But even given that, the raw numbers show that the potentially associated mortality rate is about 2.8 times higher. It’s likely that difference would disappear if similar tracking were in place, but even if true isn’t bad. So the “50 times more side effects” stuff you see circulating is overblown.

Hope that helps put things in perspective …

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