The late northern hemisphere Typhoon season has seen bad storms, and a potential devastating event is shaping up in the Philippines. Supertyphoon Goni is on a path to hit the Philippines tomorrow – currently a massive Category 5, but forecast to weaken somewhat to a strong Category 4, but that is little comfort. On this track it will pass directly over Manila, causing epic damage. Models indicate the potential for over $20 Billion US Dollars of impacts, with over 30 Million people within the swath of hurricane force winds, and one and a half million at risk from storm surge flooding. Here is the forecast damage swath – it couldn’t be much worse, with the entire metropolitan Manila area within the severe to catastrophic wind zone:
Hopefully the storm will wobble north (best) or south (less good but still better than this track) or, better yet, decrease in intensity more than forecast (but that’s probably not in the cards). The Philippines is still suffering the aftermath of Typhoon Molave, which hit south of the capital killing over twenty. Between the pandemic and a series of storms, the Philippines has little reserves for disaster relief.
For those watching the Atlantic, invest area 96L will likely become a tropical depression later today, with the US National Hurricane Center starting tracking as AL29. It will get the name “Eta” if it becomes a tropical storm, as seems likely. Either way it will bring rain to Jamaica and the so-called “ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curacau) in the southern Caribbean, and is on track to perhaps hit Nicaragua as a tropical storm in about 4 days. Will post something on it if/when NHC starts formal advisories – for now, attention should be on Goni.